Growth rate of Chinese gas demand in 2014 may decrease to the lowest level in three years. And it will continue falling in the next year. Due to Chinese economy slowing down and demoded raising price, gas demand will be far lower than anticipation.
The slowing growth rate means that demand will be difficult to reach to the expectation of IEA. It is afraid that new gas programs will be impossible to be developed, which are supposed to sell gas to China originally. In June, IEA had ever claimed that Chinese gas demands would enter into golden age.
Insiders claim that as one of two largest Chinese gas importers, CNPC has already reduced LNG
purchasing. And it is estimated that growth rate of gas demand will bear pressure in at least 3 years.
IEA predicts that Chinese gas demand will rise by 90% in the next five years and reach 3.15 hundred billion cubic meters in 2019 which will offset growth rate slowing down in Europe and other regions. That means that Chinese growth rate of gas demand will be 17.5% in every year.
However, CNPC predicts that Chinese apparent gas demand will only increase by 9.5%, decreasing by 4.7%, compared with 2013.
Although Chinese government increases gas demand for improving hazy weather, increasing domestic output, long-term LNG purchasing and more imports mean that gas supply rises at a higher rate compared with last year and exceeds demand.
Since mid-year of 2013 government raised gas price in succession, gas price has already increased by 33% in total, and makes industrial users suffer from dual strikes.
“Fundamentally, price rising will have impact on demand.” Neil Beveridge, the analyst of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co said, “Under current international energy price, demand cannot maintain a high growth rate impossibly.”